Jacksonville carries the highest multifamily vacancy of any major Florida metro — and one of the most diversified economies of any market in this series, spanning a deep-water port, a major Navy presence, and a genuine financial-technology cluster. Those two facts are not in tension; they are the whole thesis.
August 2026
Mid-2026 Outlook
Longview Commercial’s bi-annual, institutional-grade market intelligence publication — designed to give accredited investors, whether new to private real estate funds or experienced in direct asset ownership, a clear, unvarnished view of the markets we target for deployment.
Each edition focuses on a single metropolitan market, assessed across the dimensions that matter most: demographic
momentum, employment health, supply/demand dynamics, capital flows, and submarket selectivity. Our goal is not simply to
share data, but to translate that data into investment context relevant to a diversified multifamily portfolio.
Jacksonville, Florida serves as our tenth edition and the fourth Florida market in this series in the Longview portfolio strategy. As one of the nation’s most dynamic Sunbelt metros, Jacksonville exemplifies both the opportunity and the nuance that sophisticated multifamily investing demands. The following pages present our mid-2026 assessment.
Longview Commercial specializes in constructing diversified institutional-quality multifamily portfolios for accredited and
sophisticated investors. This report delivers an independent, data-driven assessment of the Jacksonville multifamily sector as of mid-2026, focusing on metrics that signal market health, investment viability, and long-term positioning.
Sources: Yardi Matrix, CoStar Group, Marcus & Millichap. Data as of Q1–Q2 2026.
Jacksonville carries the highest multifamily vacancy of any major Florida metro in this series — approximately 12.2% on an allproperty basis — the result of one of the nation’s fastest inventory expansions, with stock up roughly 15% over acomparatively short period. Rent growth has been flat to negative for 10 consecutive quarters.
The counterweight is Jacksonville’s economic base, which is more diversified than any other Florida metro in this series: a deepwater port (JAXPORT), a major U.S. Navy presence, a genuine financial-technology and title-insurance cluster (FIS, Fidelity National Financial), rail and logistics headquarters (CSX, Landstar), and a growing Mayo Clinic healthcare campus. Marcus & Millichap forecasts a sharp drop in construction activity following the third quarter of 2026, which should begin narrowing the supplydemand gap.
Within the Longview portfolio, Jacksonville is best understood as a diversification play rather than a pure supply-cycle recovery bet: the metro’s vacancy is elevated for structural (fast growth) rather than narrowly cyclical reasons, and its economic base does not depend on any single industry the way Orlando depends on tourism or Austin depends on technology.
The City of Jacksonville crossed 1 million residents for the first time in its history, with a 2026 population estimated at approximately 1.03 million. The broader metro reached approximately 1.33–1.36 million and has grown by an estimated 25% over the past 15 years — including roughly 120,000 new residents between 2010 and 2020 and another 50,000 between 2020 and 2024. Jacksonville continues to rank among the nation’s leaders in net migration, even as overall growth shows early signs of moderation.
Jacksonville added approximately 9,000 net jobs in the 12 months ending May 2025 (Yardi Matrix). Unemployment stood at 4.2% as of July 2025, up 30 basis points year-over-year and roughly in line with the national rate. Marcus & Millichap flagged a cooling labor market, combined with net absorption slightly lagging unit deliveries, as a near-term softening risk worth monitoring alongside the supply correction.
The most economically diversified metro in this series: JAXPORT (a major deep-water port and logistics hub), a substantial U.S. Navy presence (Naval Air Station Jacksonville and Naval Station Mayport among the largest Navy concentrations on the East Coast), a financial-technology and title-insurance cluster, rail transportation (CSX headquartered downtown), trucking and logistics (Landstar System), and an expanding Mayo Clinic campus supporting over 8,000 healthcare jobs. Paysafe’s new North American headquarters (~600 jobs) and Intercontinental Exchange’s planned mortgage-technology headquarters add further relocation momentum.
Jacksonville is home to three to four Fortune 500 headquarters depending on the year: CSX Corporation (rail transportation), Fidelity National Information Services (FIS, financial technology), and Fidelity National Financial (title insurance), with Landstar System appearing in some years. Guide Well Mutual Holding Corporation (parent of Florida Blue), the largest Jacksonville-based company by revenue at over $20 billion, does not appear on the Fortune 500 list because it does not publicly report financial statements.
Jacksonville’s median household income (approximately $69,900) and median age (36.5) sit close to Tampa’s profile, with a meaningfully younger and more moderate-income renter base than Miami. Jacksonville’s rents run well below Miami, Orlando, and Tampa, positioning it as the most affordable major Florida metro in this series — a genuine demand driver even amid elevated vacancy.
Crime levels run above both state and national averages across most measures reviewed: one tracker cited a violent crime index of 33.9 versus a 22.7 national average, and a property crime index of 52.9 versus 35.4 nationally. As with several metros in this series, crime is concentrated in specific areas rather than distributed evenly citywide, making neighborhood-level due diligence
particularly important here.
Overall, Jacksonville combines the highest vacancy of any Florida metro in this series with arguably the most diversified, least cyclically exposed economic base — port, Navy, fintech, rail, and healthcare all contributing simultaneously, a structural feature no other market in this series fully replicates.
Q3 2025 Sales Volume
~$315M
Avg. Price / Unit
~$181,000
Jacksonville’s defining characteristic in this series is the combination of its elevated vacancy with its unusually diversified
economic base. Where a market like Austin or San Antonio ties its recovery case largely to a single supply-and-demand narrative, Jacksonville’s port, Navy, fintech, rail, and healthcare employment bases each provide an independent demand driver — a genuine structural differentiator worth weighing against the metro’s currently soft operating fundamentals.
CURRENT (2026)
Vacancy sits at the highest level of any major Florida metro in this series, the product of one of the nation’s fastest inventory expansions rather than a sudden demand collapse.
Development remains concentrated in Saint Augustine and the North Side, which together account for nearly half of units under construction,while higher-end submarkets led 2025’s limited rent growth.
Investment activity remained subdued through Q3 2025, with buyers favoring stabilized assets amid elevated vacancy and continued
5-YEAR OUTLOOK ( 2031)
Marcus & Millichap anticipates a sharp drop in construction activity following Q3 2026, which should begin narrowing the current supply-demand gap into 2027.
As supply concentrates further in specific corridors, the gap between supply-heavy and supply-light submarkets should widen before it narrows.
Cautious optimism was emerging by late 2025 as expectations built for firmer rent trends and easing operating pressure heading into 2026.
10-YEAR OUTLOOK
Jacksonville’s diversified port, Navy, fintech, rail, and healthcare economy provides a demand foundation less exposed to any single sector’s cycle than several peer metros in this series.
Corporate relocations (Paysafe, Intercontinental Exchange) targeting higher-wage employment should continue supporting demand in premium product even amid broader softness.
Jacksonville’s average price per unit (~$181,000) remains meaningfully below several peer metros in this series, offering a comparatively attractive entry basis for patient capital.
Inventory growth over a compressed recent
period — among the fastest nationally
~15%
Under construction, Q3 2025, moderating from peak
~2,800 units
Stabilized occupancy (Yardi Matrix, June 2025)
93.2%
Average asking rent — the most affordable
major Florida metro in this series
~$1,300–1,550
Consecutive flat-to-negative rent growth
through Q3 2025
10 quarters
Average price per unit, Q3 2025 — below
several Florida peers
~$181,000
Fortune 500 headquarters (CSX, FIS, Fidelity
National Financial, and Landstar in some years)
3–4
Population — city crossed 1 million
residents for the first time
~1.03M city /
~1.33– 1.36M
metro
Unemployment Rate
~4.7%
Job Growth: some periods of modest losses or
flat
Mixed
Homicide rate versus national average of
22.7%
~33.9%
Key Notes/Drivers: Diversified (corporate HQs, logistics, finance, tech, healthcare, energy). Strong population and employment base with ongoing inmigration.
Summit Contracting Group, headquartered in Jacksonville, is the nation’s #1-ranked multifamily general contractor by the National Multifamily Housing Council for three consecutive years, with more than 10,000 units started in 2024 alone
Gateway Jax, a partnership between Jacksonville-based JWB Real Estate Capital and St. Augustinebased DLP Capital, is developing the $750 million Pearl Square master-planned district downtown, ultimately delivering more than 1,250 residential units alongside retail and hospitality space. American Landmark Apartments (Tampa-headquartered, active across this series) has also been an active acquirer in the Jacksonville market.
Investment activity remained selective through
2025, with buyers favoring stabilized assets that were easier
to finance amid elevated vacancy. Longview Commercial
structures diversified portfolios to give investors access to
institutional- quality multifamily without concentrating risk in
any single metro’s supply cycle or industry base.
Submarket
Profile & Theme
Longview View
Saint Augustine & North Side
Together account for nearly half of all units currently under construction — the
clearest concentration of near-term supply risk in the metro.
Favorable
Downtown & Pearl Square District
A $750 million, decade-long master-planned redevelopment (Gateway Jax) will ultimately deliver more than 1,250 units alongside retail, hospitality, and public space — a distinct long-horizon opportunity.
Selective
Higher-End & Premium Submarkets
Led the metro’s limited 2025 rent growth, supported by corporate relocations targeting higher-wage workers.
Cautious
Submarket views reflect qualitative positioning drawn from broker and proprietary market research as of mid-2026. Granular submarket-level rent and occupancy data were not available at point-estimate resolution for this edition and are flagged rather
than estimated.
Jacksonville in 2026 carries the highest multifamily vacancy of any major Florida metro in this series, the product of one of the nation’s fastest inventory expansions rather than a demand collapse. Rent growth has been flat to negative for 10 consecutive quarters, but the metro’s economic base is arguably the most diversified in this series — port, Navy, financial technology, rail, and healthcare all contributing independently — and Marcus & Millichap forecasts a sharp construction slowdown after Q3 2026 that should begin narrowing the supply gap. Within a diversified Sunbelt allocation, Jacksonville reads less as a cyclical recovery bet and more as a structural diversification holding: an affordable, economically varied Florida market trading at a discount to its Florida peers.
Longview Commercial is positioned to help accredited investors access high-quality, professionally managed multifamily exposure in this evolving market. All projections involve uncertainty; investors should conduct independent due diligence and consult offering documents.
Website: www.longviewcommercial.com
