Memphis pairs one of the highest multifamily vacancy rates of any major U.S. metro with one of the most dramatic, government-documented public-safety turnarounds in this series. Neither fact cancels the other out — both belong in the underwriting.
August 2026
Mid-2026 Outlook
Longview Commercial’s bi-annual, institutional-grade market intelligence publication — designed to give accredited investors whether new to private real estate funds or experienced in direct asset ownership, a clear, unvarnished view of the markets we target for deployment.
Each edition focuses on single metropolitan market, assessed across the dimensions that matter most: demographic momentum, employment health, supply/demand dynamics, capital flows, and submarket selectivity. Our goal is not simply to share data, but to translate that data into investment context relevant to a diversified multifamily portfolio.
Memphis, Tennessee serves as our thirteenth edition and the first Tennessee market in this series in the Longview portfolio
strategy. As one of the nation’s most dynamic Sunbelt metros, Memphis exemplifies both the opportunity and the nuance that sophisticated multifamily investing demands. The following pages present our mid-2026 assessment.
Longview Commercial specializes in constructing diversified institutional-quality multifamily portfolios for accredited and
sophisticated investors. This report delivers an independent, data-driven assessment of the Memphis multifamily sector as of mid2026, focusing on metrics that signal market health, investment viability, and long-term positioning.
Sources: CoStar Group, MMG Real Estate Advisors, U.S. Census Bureau. Data as of Q1–Q2 2026.
Memphis carries one of the highest multifamily vacancy rates among the 50 largest U.S. metros — cited at approximately 15.4% in one national comparison, the fourth-highest nationally. Independent Census Bureau and Federal Reserve data reviewed by a local research source put 2025 vacancy in a materially wide 9–14% range, underscoring genuine measurement uncertainty in this market. Effective rents, at approximately $1,165 per month, are among the lowest of any market in this series. Within the Longview portfolio, Memphis is the most explicitly contrarian market in this series after Birmingham and San Antonio: elevated vacancy and a historically challenging public-safety backdrop, paired with a sharply corrected supply pipeline and a globally significant logistics economy that few other markets in this series can match.
The supply side has corrected sharply: construction starts fell 60% in 2024 (to 659 units, from 1,655 in 2023), and 2026 deliveries are projected to fall further to just 456 units — well below the metro’s long-term average. Net absorption rebounded to nearly 1,600 units in 2024, a sharp recovery from negative 800 units in 2023.
The City of Memphis had a population of approximately 610,000–633,000 as of recent estimates, the second-most populous city in Tennessee. The broader Memphis metropolitan statistical area reached approximately 1.34–1.39 million residents, while the 11-county Memphis-Clarksdale-Forrest City combined statistical area (spanning Tennessee, Mississippi, and Arkansas) reached approximately 1.4 million, and the broader Mid-South region totals
approximately 2.4 million.
Memphis is one of the nation’s leading logistics and transportation hubs. FedEx, the metro’s largest employer, operates its global air cargo “SuperHub” at Memphis International Airport, one of the world’s busiest cargo
airports. The Mid-South region has the highest percentage of workers employed in logistics of any major U.S. region and ranks among the largest trucking corridors, inland ports, and Class I rail hubs in the country.
A logistics-first economy: FedEx’s global air hub, the Port of Memphis (the fifth-busiest inland water port in the U.S.), and major freight rail infrastructure anchor a supply-chain cluster that includes large operations from Nike, Baskin Robbins, Sharp, and Hewlett-Packard. Ford’s $5.6 billion BlueOval City electric-vehicle campus, located in the broader West Tennessee region within Memphis’s economic orbit, is projected to create approximately 6,000 permanent positions once fully operational.
Memphis is home to three Fortune 500 headquarters: FedEx (#63), International Paper (#107), and AutoZone (#306). The metro also hosts First Horizon National Corporation and Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA), one of the largest publicly traded multifamily REITs in the country — a notable real-estate-sector concentration for a market of this size.
Memphis offers rents among the most affordable of any market in this series, supporting durable demand from a logistics- and healthcare-oriented workforce. The metro’s renter base skews toward more moderate incomes than several peer markets, and affordability remains one of the clearest demand drivers across the sources reviewed for this report.
Genuinely significant, independently documented, and still evolving. Memphis has historically ranked among the highest-crime major U.S. cities, including a #1 ranking in one 2024 national safety survey. Following a September 2025 federal public-safety intervention, Memphis Police data showed major crime categories falling sharply: aggravated assaults down 22% in 2025, shooting incidents down 38%, burglary and larceny at 25-year lows, and preliminary 2026 data showing all major crimes down 44% with murders falling from 110 to 62 through June year-over-year. Crime remains concentrated in specific neighborhoods (Downtown
and North Memphis show the highest rates), while Collierville and Windyke-Southwind report rates far below average. Given the recency of these changes, we recommend independent verification before relying on them in underwriting.
Overall, Memphis combines one of the most significant recent public-safety turnarounds of any market in this series with a globally significant logistics economy and among the most affordable rents Longview tracks — set against genuinely elevated vacancy and a historically challenging crime baseline that predates the recent improvement.
2023 Construction Starts
1,655 units
2024 Construction Starts (−60%)
659 units
Memphis’s combination of elevated vacancy and a globally significant logistics economy has no exact parallel among the other markets in this series. Where markets like Austin or San Antonio paired heavy supply with population-growth-driven demand stories, Memphis’s demand base is more industrially anchored — FedEx’s global hub alone provides a scale of employment stability that is largely uncorrelated with the migration trends driving many other Sunbelt metros.
CURRENT (2026)
Vacancy remains among the highest of any major U.S. metro by some measures, though the range across sources (9 – 15.4%) is unusually wide even by this series’ standards.
Net absorption swung dramatically from negative 800 units in 2023 to nearly 1,600 units in 2024, with Downtown and Northeast Memphis submarkets accounting for over 1,000 units of
that absorption.
The 2025 federal public safety intervention and subsequent 2026 crime data represent one of the most significant, well-documented turnarounds in this series, though the longer-term trend monitoring.
5-YEAR OUTLOOK ( 2031)
With construction starts down 60% in 2024 and 2026 deliveries projected at just 456 units, the supply side has corrected sharply, setting up conditions for gradual stabilization if absorption holds.
Outlying, limited-inventory bsubmarkets such as Collierville, Tate, and Tipton County are projected to bsustain occupancy near or above 94%, offering a bmaterially different risk profile than the urban core.
Continued improvement in public safety metrics would likely support both renter demand and investor sentiment toward a market that has
historically traded at a meaningful risk discount.
10-YEAR OUTLOOK
FedEx’s global air hub and the broader Mid-South logistics economy provide a demand anchor with limited direct exposure to the migration cycles affecting several other markets in this series.
A payment-in-lieu-of-taxes (PILOT) program from the Economic Development Growth Engine (EDGE) has directed a majority of new development toward Northeast Memphis and Midtown, concentrating both supply risk and revitalization upside in specific
corridors.
Independent verification of ongoing 2026 crime trends, rather than reliance on any single data
release, should be part of standard underwriting for Memphis assets.
Construction starts, 2024 vs. 2023 — one of the sharpest pullbacks in this series
−60%
2026 deliveries forecast — a multi- year low
456 units
Vacancy—the widest source spread of any market in this series
~9%–15.4%
Average effective rent — among the lowest in this series
~$1,165
2024 net absorption, a sharp swing from −800 units in 2023
+1,600 units
Fortune 500 headquarters — FedEx,
International Paper, AutoZone
3
Memphis MSA population; city proper ~610,000–633,000
~1.34–1.39M
metro
Unemployment Rate
~4–5% range
Job Growth
Moderate
All major crimes, YoY through mid-2026, per Memphis Police Department preliminary data
−44%
Key Notes/Drivers: Logistics (major hub), healthcare, manufacturing, and distribution. Transportation and distribution strengths.
Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA),
headquartered in Memphis, is one of the largest publicly traded multifamily REITs in the United States, with a substantial national portfolio and deep roots in its home market.
Development activity has increasingly
concentrated in Northeast Memphis and Midtown, supported by the Economic Development Growth Engine’s payment-in-lieu-of taxes program; Northeast Memphis alone is expected to
account for the large majority of new completions in recent delivery cycles.
Historical transaction activity has drawn significant out-of-state investor interest, attracted to Memphis’s
comparatively high yields and lower pricing relative to larger Sunbelt metros, though we could not confirm a current sales volume figure for this edition. Longview Commercial structures diversified portfolios to give investors access to institutional quality multifamily without concentrating risk in any single metro’s supply cycle, safety profile, or industry base.
Submarket
Profile & Theme
Longview View
Collierville, Tate & Tipton County
Limited-inventory outlying submarkets projected to sustain occupancy at or above 94%, offering a materially different risk profile than the urban core.
Favorable
Northeast Memphis
The focal point of recent development activity, supported by PILOT incentives and accounting for the majority of new completions and over 1,000 units of 2024 absorption alongside Downtown.
Selective
Downtown & Midtown
Strong recent absorption and a growing revitalization narrative, balanced against Downtown’s elevated crime-incident concentration relative to the metro average.
Selective
Submarket views reflect qualitative positioning drawn from broker and proprietary market research as of mid-2026. Granular submarket-level rent and occupancy data were not available at point-estimate resolution for this edition and are flagged rather than estimated.
Memphis in 2026 combines two facts that must both be underwritten, not allowed to obscure one another: vacancy remains among the highest of any major U.S. metro by several measures, and the metro has produced one of the most significant, government-documented public-safety turnarounds in this series following a 2025 federal intervention. The construction pipeline has corrected sharply, absorption swung positive in 2024, and a globally significant logistics economy anchored by FedEx provides genuine demand stability. Memphis functions as a contrarian, deep-value complement to this series’ larger metros — appropriate only for capital prepared to underwrite the crime-trend uncertainty and wide data spread directly.
Longview Commercial is positioned to help accredited investors access high-quality, professionally managed multifamily exposure in this evolving market. All projections involve uncertainty; investors should conduct independent due diligence and consult offering documents.
Website: www.longviewcommercial.com
