“Richmond posted one of the highest year-over-year rent gains in the country while absorbing its second-highest annual delivery total in a decade — a Fortune 500 concentration few markets this size can match doing the quiet, steady work underneath the headlin number.”
August 2026
Mid-2026 Outlook
Longview Commercial’s bi-annual, institutional-grade market intelligence publication — designed to give accredited investors, whether new to private real estate funds or experienced in direct asset ownership, a clear, unvarnished view of the markets we target for deployment.
Each edition focuses on a single metropolitan market, assessed across the dimensions that matter most: demographic momentum, employment health, supply/demand dynamics, capital flows, and submarket selectivity. Our goal is not simply to share data, but to translate that data into investment context relevant to a diversified multifamily portfolio.
Richmond, Virginia serves as our twenty-second edition and the first Virginia market in this series in the Longview portfolio strategy. As one of the nation’s most dynamic Sunbelt metros, Richmond exemplifies both the opportunity and the nuance that sophisticated multifamily investing demands. The following pages present our mid-2026 assessment.
Longview Commercial specializes in constructing diversified institutional-quality multifamily portfolios for accredited and
sophisticated investors. This report delivers an independent, data-driven assessment of the Richmond multifamily sector as of mid-2026, focusing on metrics that signal market health, investment viability, and long-term positioning.
Sources: Yardi Matrix, Marcus & Millichap, Northmarq, U.S. Census Bureau. Data as of Q1–Q2 2026.
Richmond delivered 6,089 new units in 2025 (Yardi Matrix) — the second-highest annual total in the past decade and a 39% increase from 2024 — yet still posted year-over-year rent growth of approximately 3.6% through February 2026, among the highest readings of any market tracked nationally by Yardi Matrix. Average asking rents reached approximately $1,619–$1,625 per month.
Vacancy estimates vary by methodology, consistent with a pattern seen elsewhere in this series: Northmarq’s stabilized-property tracking shows vacancy in a comparatively tight 7.2–7.7% band, while separate CoStar-sourced data cited overall market vacancy at approximately 8.9–9.0%, projected to peak near 9.4–9.5% by early 2027 before gradually declining. Net absorption of approximately 2,750–2,958 units over the trailing year ran roughly 18% above the market’s historical average, offsetting most of the impact of the heavy delivery pace.
The construction pipeline is down approximately 5% from a year ago, and elevated construction financing costs (7.5–9.0% interest rates) are constraining new starts through 2026–2027.
Net absorption ran roughly 18% above the market’s historical average over the trailing 12 months, helping offset the second- highest delivery total of the past decade.
Downtown Richmond’s vacancy has remained comparatively steady in the mid-5% range even as most other submarkets posted annual increases.
Investment activity reached approximately $1.6 billion in 2025, with an additional $160 million transacted in the first two months of 2026 alone.
Within the Longview portfolio, Richmond reads as structurally similar to Nashville and Charlotte: a large, economically diversified metro absorbing a genuine supply wave on the strength of an unusually deep corporate base for a market of its size.
The Richmond metro area reached approximately 1,151,000–1,162,000 residents as of 2024– 2025 estimates, growing at a consistent pace of roughly 1% annually in recent years — a steadier, if less explosive, growth trajectory than several faster-growing Sunbelt metros elsewhere in this series.
Richmond’s employment growth slowed to approximately 0.2% through December 2025 (Yardi Matrix), 40 basis points behind the national average, though Northmarq’s 2026 outlook projects a return to growth of approximately 1.0% for the year, supported by education/health services and finance. Unemployment stood at 3.3% at the end of 2025, 110 basis points below the national average.
An unusually deep corporate base for a metro of its size: Richmond is home to five Fortune 500 headquarters as of the 2026 rankings — CarMax, Altria Group, Markel Group, Dominion Energy, and Accendra Health (formerly Owens & Minor) — alongside Goochland-based Performance Food Group, the region’s highest-ranked Fortune 1000 company. Capital One maintains a major operational presence in the metro (its corporate headquarters is in McLean, Virginia). DuPont operates its largest manufacturing plant in the world in the Richmond area. VCU Health anchors a substantial healthcare sector, and the VA Bio+Tech Park supports a growing life-sciences cluster. As Virginia’s capital, state government employment adds further economic stability.
Richmond hosted five Fortune 500 headquarters as of the 2026 rankings: CarMax (#162), Altria Group (#221), Markel Group (#270), Dominion Energy (#272), and Accendra Health (#407, formerly Owens & Minor). This is a notably deep concentration for a metro of Richmond’s size, though the count has declined slightly from a previously cited eight in older sources — we present the more current, specifically sourced 2026 figure.
A renter base supported by Richmond’s deep base of finance, insurance, and healthcare employment, alongside state government and Virginia Commonwealth University. The region ranks 6th among metros east of the Mississippi for concentration of business and finance workers, and its relative affordability compared with Northern Virginia is frequently cited as a driver of continued in- migration.
A genuinely mixed, two-sided picture. Richmond’s violent crime rate runs well below the national average, and murders reportedly dropped more than 50% in Q1 2026 compared to the same period a year earlier — a significant, if recent and not yet independently verified over multiple years, improvement. Property crime, by contrast, runs above the national rate and pulls the city’s overall crime statistics higher, with vehicle break-ins and theft cited as common in several neighborhoods.
Overall, Richmond combines an unusually deep Fortune 500 concentration for its size, steady population growth, and genuinely strong recent rent performance — balanced against elevated new supply and a property-crime trend that has not improved as clearly as the violent-crime picture.
2025 Sales Volume
~$1.6B
Jan–Feb 2026 Sales Volume
~$160M
Richmond’s combination of one of the nation’s highest year-over-year rent gains with its second-highest annual delivery total in a decade is a genuinely uncommon pairing in this series — most markets absorbing heavy supply have posted flat or negative rent growth over the same period.
CURRENT (2026)
Richmond absorbed its second-highest annual delivery total in a decade in 2025, yet posted rent growth of approximately 3.6% YoY — among the strongest readings of any market tracked nationally by Yardi Matrix.
Western Henrico County led absorption at 733 units, Midlothian commanded the metro’s highest rents ($1,823/month), and Hanover County posted the tightest vacancy (4.0%) with zero new supply.
Investment activity reached approximately $1.6 billion in 2025, with investors showing a clear preference for newer- vintage, higher-priced stabilized assets.
5-YEAR OUTLOOK ( 2031)
With the construction pipeline down roughly 5% and elevated financing costs constraining new starts, supply pressure should continue easing through 2026 and 2027.
Downtown Richmond’s vacancy held comparatively steady in the mid-5% range even as most other submarkets posted annual increases.
Broader stabilization will be signaled by increased trading activity in older asset vintages, per at least one source’s framework.
10-YEAR OUTLOOK
Richmond’s five Fortune 500 headquarters, deep finance and insurance base, and VCU Health/state- government employment provide a demand foundation with real structural depth.
Submarket-level dispersion is meaningful enough that metro-wide averages likely understate the strength of the tightest-performing corridors.
Richmond’s relative affordability compared with Northern Virginia continues to be cited as a structural driver of in-migration and long-term demand.
2025 deliveries—2nd-highest annual total in a decade, +39% vs. 2024
6,089 units
Vacancy— source and methodology- dependent range
~7.2%–9.5%
Average asking rent (source range)
~$1,619–1,625
Rent growth, year-over-year (Yardi Matrix)— among the highest nationally tracked
+3.6%
2025multifamily investment sales volume
~$1.6B
Cap rates, generally
~5.0-5.5%
Metro population (2024–2025), growing ~1% annually
~1.15–1.16M
Fortune 500 headquarters (2026) — CarMax, Altria, Markel, Dominion Energy, Accendra Health
5
Unemployment Rate (May 2026 preliminary)
~3-4%
Job Growth: Modest recent (~0–1.1% YoY range in benchmarks); forecasted acceleration
to ~1.7% in 2026
Murders, Q12026 vs. Q1 2025 — property crime trend less favorable
-50%
Key Notes/Drivers:
Finance/banking, government, manufacturing, healthcare, and logistics. Diversified with strong professional services base.
We did not identify a single, dominant Richmond headquartered multifamily developer comparable to the local anchors profiled in other editions of this series in our sourcing for this edition.
Development activity has concentrated in Downtown Richmond and Chesterfield County submarkets, with the metro’s construction pipeline down approximately 5% from a year ago as elevated financing costs constrain new starts.
: Investment activity totaled approximately $1.6 billion in 2025 with continued momentum into 2026, though investors have shown a preference for newer-vintage communities over older stabilized assets. Longview Commercial structures diversified portfolios to give investors access to institutional- quality multifamily without concentrating risk in any single metro’s supply cycle or industry base.
Submarket
Profile & Theme
Longview View
Hanover County
The tightest vacancy in the metro at 4.0%, supported by zero new supply — a genuinely differentiated risk profile from the rest of the market.
Favorable
Downtown Richmond
Vacancy held comparatively steady in the mid-5% range even as most other submarkets posted annual increases, suggesting the urban core has weathered the recent supply wave better than the broader metro.
Favorable
Western Henrico County
The metro’s largest submarket by inventory (28,018 units) and the leader in absorption (733 units in one recent reading), despite carrying 8.2% vacancy.
Selective
Midlothian
Commands the metro’s highest rents (approximately $1,823/month) and absorbed 592 units in one recent reading, reflecting strong demand for premium product.
Selective
Chesterfield County
Among the submarkets that received the heaviest concentration of 2025 deliveries, representing the metro’s more direct supply-risk exposure.
Cautious
Submarket views reflect qualitative positioning drawn from broker and proprietary market research as of mid-2026. Granular submarket-level rent and occupancy data were not available at point-estimate resolution for this edition and are flagged rather than estimated.
Richmond in 2026 is managing a combination this series has rarely seen paired together: one of the nation’s highest year-over- year rent gains alongside its second-highest annual delivery total in a decade. An unusually deep Fortune 500 base for a metro of its size, elevated construction financing costs constraining future supply, and steady population growth all support a constructive multi-year view, tempered by genuine data source variance on vacancy, a property-crime trend that hasn’t improved as clearly as violent crime, and submarket-level dispersion that means metro-wide averages likely understate both the strongest and weakest pockets of the market. Within a diversified allocation, Richmond introduces a genuinely different regional exposure to this series — Mid-Atlantic rather than Sunbelt or Southeast — anchored by corporate depth rather than migration velocity.
Longview Commercial is positioned to help accredited investors access high-quality, professionally managed multifamily exposure in this evolving market. All projections involve uncertainty; investors should conduct independent due diligence and consult offering documents.
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Website: www.longviewcommercial.com
